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Realities of natural gas

Port Dover Maple Leaf: Grant Church (Clean Affordable Energy Alliance) - January 14, 2009

"Clean, affordable, and abundant!" they used to say. Natural gas that is.

Affordable? Abundant? Why is natural gas so abundant?

Gas is a finite natural resource. when it's gone, it's gone. Production is sliding despite drilling a massive number of wells in this country.

the National Energy Board (NEB) said in 2007 gas production will be down by 12% by the end of 2009. It fell 2% in 2007. the slide accelerated in 2008 to 6% drop in the first nine months over the same period of 2007'

The NEB says, "Don't worry."

The NEB has different scenarios for future production. the best ones are based on a lot of "ifs".

If we get liquefied natural gas (LNG) from abroad; if we get gas from coql beds; if the MacKenzie Valley pipeline is bilt.

Nothing that can stem the fall of the 2.1 billion cubic feet/day that will have occurred by the end of 2009.

The remaining scenario is not pretty. It shows production falling off a cliff into an abyss starting in 2010.

The MacKenzie Valley pipeline was supposed to have been completed this year. It's bogged down in the approvals process, and the price has balloned to $16 billion.

A LNG terminal will be completed this year in Saint John, New Brunswick only to ship the gas to the U.S. All this a a time when demand is increasing.

Premier McGuinty wants to use this precious fuel to make electricity to replace coal, a move that will drive the cost of generation up by 60-70% according to CIBC world Markets.

When combined with other government initiatives, power bills will rise by 46%.

This is a price we can't afford, and a plan that will bring hardship.

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